Crane offloading a transformer in Malawi

Coal Fired Power Plants

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Coal Fired Power Plants

Country
Sector
Most major industry classification systems use sources of revenue as their basis for classifying companies into specific sectors, subsectors and industries. In order to group like companies based on their sustainability-related risks and opportunities, SASB created the Sustainable Industry Classification System® (SICS®) and the classification of sectors, subsectors and industries in the SDG Investor Platform is based on SICS.
Infrastructure
Sub Sector
Most major industry classification systems use sources of revenue as their basis for classifying companies into specific sectors, subsectors and industries. In order to group like companies based on their sustainability-related risks and opportunities, SASB created the Sustainable Industry Classification System® (SICS®) and the classification of sectors, subsectors and industries in the SDG Investor Platform is based on SICS.
Utilities
Indicative Return
Describes the rate of growth an investment is expected to generate within the IOA. The indicative return is identified for the IOA by establishing its Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Return of Investment (ROI) or Gross Profit Margin (GPM).
5% - 10% (in IRR)
Investment Timeframe
Describes the time period in which the IOA will pay-back the invested resources. The estimate is based on asset expected lifetime as the IOA will start generating accumulated positive cash-flows.
Long Term (10+ years)
Market Size
Describes the value of potential addressable market of the IOA. The market size is identified for the IOA by establishing the value in USD, identifying the Compound Annual Growth Rate (CAGR) or providing a numeric unit critical to the IOA.
> USD 1 billion
Average Ticket Size (USD)
Describes the USD amount for a typical investment required in the IOA.
> USD 10 million
Direct Impact
Describes the primary SDG(s) the IOA addresses.
Affordable and Clean Energy (SDG 7) Decent Work and Economic Growth (SDG 8) Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure (SDG 9)
Indirect Impact
Describes the secondary SDG(s) the IOA addresses.
No Poverty (SDG 1) Reduced Inequalities (SDG 10)

Business Model Description

Finance and develop a coal fired power plants (100 - 300 MW) using clean coal technology that is capable of supplying firm baseload power to the main line grid. Clean Coal Technology (CCT) refers to the of use coal for power generation in more environmentally acceptable and economically viable ways. This can include the use of super-critical pulverised fuel and the use of carbon capture storage and utilisation. The power produced will subsequently be bought by the Electricity Supply Corporation of Malawi (ESCOM) under a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) and be fed into the grid. The Electricity Supply Corporation of Malawi (ESCOM), the Single Buyer, is the only authorized buyer of all power and energy within Malawi.

Expected Impact

Provide an energy baseload alternative to hydropower to achieve grid stability, which will assist in decreasing operational costs of industry in Malawi, contributing positively to overall Malawi economic growth.

How is this information gathered?

Investment opportunities with potential to contribute to sustainable development are based on country-level SDG Investor Maps.

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Country & Regions

Explore the country and target locations of the investment opportunity.
Country
Region
  • Malawi: Southern
  • Malawi: Northern
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Sector Classification

Situate the investment opportunity within sustainability focused sector, subsector and industry classifications.
Sector

Infrastructure

Development need
A key priority of the government is to build new infrastructure so that it can withstand climate shocks and stressors (6). The Africa SDG Index and Dashboards Report 2019, on SDG 9 regarding Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure, indicates that Malawi has “significant or major challenges” in achieving this SDG (7). The country's infrastructure performance is ranked 132 out of 141 countries in the WEF Global Competitiveness Report 2019, with a declining trend over 2018 (8). There is need to upgrade infrastructure to accelerate the economic transformation and broaden access to electricity and ICT.

Policy priority
MW2063 and it's first 10-year implementation plan (MIP-1) prioritizes infrastructure development and investment in secondary cities to provide economic opportunities, easy communication and closer connectivity to socio-economic amenities (2).

Gender inequalities and marginalization issues
Expansion of the electricity grid and the digital network would reduce the need for energy sources like firewood, charcoal and paraffin, and offer opportunities for e-learning and e-business therewith improving the living, learning and business conditions for women, girls and MSMEs (13).

Investment opportunities introduction
Malawi faces a USD 1.8 billion funding gap to fund USD 2.5 billion in capital investment requirements for the power sector in the lowest-cost scenario to achieve a generation capacity in line with projected peak demand (1000 MW) by 2030 (10).

Key bottlenecks introduction
The development of trade and transport infrastructure is a critical need for Malawi. The quality of the country’s roads, rail, and ICT systems scored the lowest across all indicators in the most recent World Bank Logistics Performance Index. Landlocked, Malawi has few routes to market—with three primary trade corridors and almost all freight transported by truck (30).

Sub Sector

Utilities

Development need
Only 16% of Malawians have access to electricity - with a worryingly declining trend - compared to a world average of 91% (14). Malawi’s power generation is heavily dependent on weather conditions as about 98% of electricity is generated by hydroelectric power stations. Thus, low water levels during drought periods and silting during the rainy season disrupt electricity generation. This overreliance on hydropower for energy provision further increases the country’s vulnerability to climate changes (2).

Policy priority
Malawi has recently launched it's long-term Vision MW 2063 (1) and the second pillar of Industrialisation focuses on inter alia Investment in Power Generation and Access to electricity. The Government is committed to increasing Malawi’s generation capacity by 1000 MW by 2025. The first 10-year MW2062 implementation plan targets to diversifying the number of independent power producers, largely focusing on renewable and sustainable energy to reduce the over dependence on hydro-generated power from just one river (2). MW2063 and it's first 10-year implementation plan (MIP-1) aims to increase access to electricity to 50% by 2030 while matching the proportion of energy generation to that of energy demand (32).

Gender inequalities and marginalization issues
Energy poverty, one aspect of broader economic poverty, has distinct gender characteristics that disproportionately affect women and girls. Women and girls are often primarily responsible for collecting fuel and water at the community level. Also, poor women tend to participate in the informal economic sector (for example, the food sector), which relies strongly on biomass as its main energy source, which, in turn, does not feature heavily in national energy policies and priorities (11).

Investment opportunities introduction
The Government has classified the energy sector among the priority industries, with entitlement to special incentives. It has also opened up the energy sector to both public and private sector investments to ensure that power deficiencies are addressed with a view to ultimately improve access to electricity in the country. In this regard, there is an Independent Power Producer (IPP) framework that helps to promote and incentivize investments in power production, sustain purchase costs for power from independent producers and thus encouraging wider participation (4).

Key bottlenecks introduction
Malawi has a high population density, and the current population growth rate of 2.8% is outpacing the rate of electrification. The national grid does not produce enough electricity to satisfy demand and the physical reach of the grid does not include most rural areas (12).

Industry

Electric Utilities and Power Generators

Pipeline Opportunity

Discover the investment opportunity and its corresponding business model.
Investment Opportunity Area

Coal Fired Power Plants

Crane offloading a transformer in Malawi
Business Model

Finance and develop a coal fired power plants (100 - 300 MW) using clean coal technology that is capable of supplying firm baseload power to the main line grid. Clean Coal Technology (CCT) refers to the of use coal for power generation in more environmentally acceptable and economically viable ways. This can include the use of super-critical pulverised fuel and the use of carbon capture storage and utilisation. The power produced will subsequently be bought by the Electricity Supply Corporation of Malawi (ESCOM) under a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) and be fed into the grid. The Electricity Supply Corporation of Malawi (ESCOM), the Single Buyer, is the only authorized buyer of all power and energy within Malawi.

Business Case

Learn about the investment opportunity’s business metrics and market risks.

Market Size and Environment

Market Size (USD)
Describes the value in USD of a potential addressable market of the IOA.

> USD 1 billion

CAGR
Describes the historical or expected annual growth of revenues in the IOA market.

< 5%

The gap between energy production and demand is forecast to widen due to economic and population growth. The Current Path forecast is that the proportion of energy production to energy demand will be 61.5% by 2030, below the Malawi government target of 100% in the same year. According to the Integrated National Resource Plan, the base forecast estimates that maximum demand will reach 719 MW by 2020, 1,873 MW by 2030 and 4,620 MW by 2040 (34). It is estimated that Malawi will need to mobilize USD 3 billion by 2030 to close this energy gap (3).

Malawi may have the potential to export energy to the Southern Africa Power Pool (SAPP), a cooperation of the national electricity companies in Southern Africa under the auspices of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) (4). SADC has a total installed generation capacity of 71,653 MW as of 2023 (16) with a projected demand of 96,000 MW by 2027 (17).

The annual average national energy demand growth rates are 17.5% through to 2020, and 10% per annum from 2020 to 2030. The integrated resource plan makes provision for a total of three 300 MW Coal Fired Power Plant (CFPP) as the maximum (34).

Indicative Return

IRR
Describes an expected annual rate of growth of the IOA investment.

5% - 10%

A report surveying the economics of 600 MW pure condensing coal fired power units in different provinces in China and under multiple scenarios sets the full investment IRR of a 600 MW coal-fired power plant at 6.6% and the proprietary funds IRR is set to 8% (19).

Investment Timeframe

Timeframe
Describes the time period in which the IOA will pay-back the invested resources. The estimate is based on asset expected lifetime as the IOA will start generating accumulated positive cash-flows.

Long Term (10+ years)

Typical payback periods for plants of 300 MW size is nearly 10 years (36).

Ticket Size

Average Ticket Size (USD)
Describes the USD amount for a typical investment required in the IOA.

> USD 10 million

Market Risks & Scale Obstacles

Business - Supply Chain Constraints

Transmission losses in Malawi continue to be amongst the highest in the world, and reducing losses or improving transmission efficiency is the main concern in the electric power sector. The overall transmission losses are estimated to be currently 21%, with around 14% being technical losses. High losses in the distribution systems are mainly due to the aging systems, with inadequate investments over the past years resulting in unplanned extensions of distribution lines and the overloading of systems equipment such as transformers and conductors (20).

Market - Highly Regulated

In line with the 2017 Tariff Methodology, every four years, power sector licensees submit business plans to the Malawi Energy Regulatory Authority (MERA) for consideration and approval. The licensee business plans contain revenue requirements for a four-year period to finance both operational and capital requirements. Determination of revenue requirements for a four-year period carries with it inherent risks and uncertainties due to assumptions used. These risks may arise as result of assumptions made on inflation, exchange rates, sales and revenues, regulatory asset base (RAB), taxes, and planned generation capacity among others. These risks will be managed through various instruments, such as annual tariff reviews, decoupling mechanism and Automatic Tariff Adjustment Formula (ATAF) (26).

Impact Case

Read about impact metrics and social and environmental risks of the investment opportunity.

Sustainable Development Need

In 2022, Malawi ranked fourth lowest in energy access in Africa, just ahead of South Sudan, Chad, and Burundi. In 2023, its electricity access rate was estimated at 19% (45% in cities and 5% in rural areas), showing that access rose from 11% in 2018 with the expansion of the private sector-led, off-grid solar home system, while the percentage of access linked to the national grid has remained stagnant at about 12% (41). Without investment in the energy sector in coming years, Malawi’s private sector will not be able to grow, and existing divides in energy access could widen, worsening socio-economic conditions for poor and remote communities (30).

Malawi’s dependence on hydropower makes it especially vulnerable to climate related weather events, which have increased in frequency, intensity, and magnitude over the last two decades in Malawi. These include prolonged dry spells, seasonal droughts, intense rainfall, riverine floods, and flash floods. As these events become more frequent, Malawi will be forced to increase load shedding and blackouts unless they are able to diversify their electricity generation profile (35).

350 MW of Malawi's generation capacity comes from hydropower production, but due to frequent infrastructure and equipment breakdowns, these plants average a production capacity of approximately 150 MW/year (35). According to Malawi's Ministry of Energy, the mining sector's projected minimum demand alone is estimated to be 800 MW by 2035 (21.1).

According to the Mini-Integrated Resource Plan for Malawi, and the Integrated Resource Plan for Malawi, a number of solar PV plants will be commissioned in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) period (2016-2020), however it will not have any effect on the peak demand which is usually an evening peak for Malawi (33). In order to achieve Malawi's industrialisation ambitions, Malawi would need stable baseload to accommodate the mining sector. The need to ensure security and reliability of electricity supply is a theme that runs through the current Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) analysis (34).

A key issue for Malawi's energy security is its dependence on imported petroleum products. The country is highly vulnerable to oil price shocks as it imports almost all of its 8,000 barrels of oil per day (20). The government of Malawi has purchased generators from Indian company Aggreko. These diesel generators have unfortunately, proved unreliable as they were supposed to supply the country with an additional 78 MW of energy to be distributed through ESCOM national grid. However, they largely have failed to improve power supply due to the cost of diesel in Malawi (43).

Gender & Marginalisation

In rural areas, the time-consuming task of gathering firewood is borne by women and girls, who are then diverted from other activities such as education and farming that could eventually have improved their productivity and living conditions. In Malawi, rural women spend 9.1 hours a week collecting firewood and water compared to men’s 1.1 hours (30).

Research has shown that women and children disproportionally bear the negative health effects of using kerosene and biomass (30).

Expected Development Outcome

Coal fired power plants will improve electricity availability through the national grid, including reduced prices and fewer blackouts, and would have a positive effect on citizens and major industries, such as mining, that could catalyse economic growth.

Malawi's generation expansion plan makes provision for a diverse energy mix including solar, wind, hydro and biomass. However, each solar and wind plant is relatively small, and in particular the intermittent plants would need to be strategically placed in terms of location in order for such generation to support the grid, hence the importance of utilising coal in the meantime (34).

The Electricity Supply Corporation of Malawi (ESCOMs) grid can only absorb limited amount of power from variable renewable sources such as wind, solar PV and Concentrated Solar Power (CSP). Some preliminary assessments have indicated that the grid can only take up to 20 MW of such variable power source on the existing network. Solar PV technology takes lots of land and for a country like Malawi with very high population density this needs to be handled with care. In situations like these, reclaimable land can be used (33).

As overall grid connectivity improves due to increased generation capacity, deforestation will decrease. Studies show that grid electricity reduces firewood consumption by approximately 0.83–2.09 cubic meters per month and electrified households are approximately 61–71% less likely to use kerosene as lighting fuel (13).

Gender & Marginalisation

Modern and reliable energy is essential for economic development and women’s empowerment. Time saved from wood and fuel collection could be effectively used for new business opportunities. In South Africa, female employment in newly electrified communities rose by almost 10% because of the improved efficiency in carrying out domestic tasks (24).

Primary SDGs addressed

Affordable and Clean Energy (SDG 7)
7 - Affordable and Clean Energy

7.1.1 Proportion of population with access to electricity

Current Value

17% (2022) (6).

Target Value

100% (2023) (23).

Decent Work and Economic Growth (SDG 8)
8 - Decent Work and Economic Growth

8.1.1 Annual growth rate of real GDP per capita

Current Value

3.9% (2021) (23).

Target Value

7% (2030) (23).

Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure (SDG 9)
9 - Industry, Innovation and Infrastructure

9.2.1 Manufacturing value added as a proportion of GDP and per capita

Current Value

11.8% (2021) (23).

Target Value

25% (2030) (23).

Secondary SDGs addressed

No Poverty (SDG 1)
1 - No Poverty
Reduced Inequalities (SDG 10)
10 - Reduced Inequalities

Directly impacted stakeholders

People

Urban populations who are already connected to the grid benefit from greater electricity supply and stability.

Gender inequality and/or marginalization

Increased employment opportunities available in the electricity sector for women.

Planet

The Electricity Supply Corporation of Malawi (ESCOM) can increase access to electricity more broadly, and the increased access to national grid electricity leads to reduced deforestation that would benefit the environment (13).

Corporates

More electricity availability even during peak hours of demand would reduce the risk of blackouts. Agriculture and mining industries will benefit immensely.

Public sector

The Electricity Supply Corporation of Malawi (ESCOM) benefits through increased generation capacity that could contribute to closing the demand deficit. The Electricity Generation Company (EGENCO) of Malawi benefits immensely from grid stability.

Indirectly impacted stakeholders

People

General citizenry through increased economic activity and employment opportunities due to grid stability and reliability.

Corporates

New jobs could be created and new businesses emerge as production from industry ramps and are able to scale to due energy security.

Public sector

The Government of Malawi benefits through electricity reliability that will contribute to Malawi being a more attractive investment destination particularly for the mining industry. The Malawi Revenue Authority will benefit due to increased economic output countrywide, thereby increasing the tax base.

Outcome Risks

The recent downward trend of global investment in coal-fired power plants shown in the IEA’s World Energy Investment 2021 report reflects both the growing sentiment that new coal power generation capacity is misaligned with achieving a net-zero economy by 2050, and the diminishing economic case for coal versus alternative generation sources (27).

A critical mass of private financiers has taken steps to curb direct financing of emissions-intensive activity, such as coal-fired electricity generation. 53 financial institutions representing nearly one quarter of global banking assets have joined the UN’s Net Zero Banking Alliance, which reflects a commitment to aligning the institutions’ loan portfolios with net-zero emissions by 2050 (27).

Without sufficient, parallel investment in supporting grid infrastructure, a coal plant risks being stranded on commissioning, preventing it from realizing the benefits of baseload generation that coal-fired power can theoretically provide while leaving financial and environmental costs to bear (27).

The mining and coal use are associated with significant environmental impacts. The local environmental hazards of coal vary from place to place. While some communities are most affected by air pollution from coal-fired power plants, others endure toxic groundwater from mining. The large scale mining and burning of coal emits greenhouse gases responsible for global climate change (42).

However, Malawi needs to improve its energy mix for reliable generation capacity. Malawi's power demand will vary cyclically from day to day, reaching maximum during day business hours and dropping to minimum during late night and early morning, but never dropping below a certain base. This base load is typically at 30-40% of the maximum load, so the amount of load assigned to base load plants is tuned to that level. The above-base power demand (above the base) is handled by intermediate and peak power plants, which are also included to the grid (42). Considering Malawi wants ramp up generation capacity to 1,873 MW by 2030, 30% - 40% (561 - 749 MW) would need to be firm base load (34).

Impact Risks

The increased electricity supply may not reach those most in need because they are not connected to the grid.

Impact Classification

B—Benefit Stakeholders

What

A clean technology coal fired power plant as part of a diversified energy mix that includes renewable energy will contribute to the generation capacity and affordable baseload energy required to support Malawi's industrialisation ambitions.

Who

Large industries benefit from higher availability of electricity during peak demand and experience fewer black-outs.

Risk

The increased electricity generation and availability in the grid might not reach some of the rural population most in need.

Contribution

Zambia-Malawi and Mozambique-Malawi interconnectors are high priority projects that can help the government meet short-term power needs without capital investment in new generation projects (45).

How Much

Electricity shortages are estimated to cost the country around 2-3% of GDP (20). There are over 200 MW of suppressed demand (the total installed capacity of Malawi is 536 MW) that has not been met by the existing supply (46).

Impact Thesis

Provide an energy baseload alternative to hydropower to achieve grid stability, which will assist in decreasing operational costs of industry in Malawi, contributing positively to overall Malawi economic growth.

Enabling Environment

Explore policy, regulatory and financial factors relevant for the investment opportunity.

Policy Environment

Malawi 2063 states that the country shall continue investing in the energy sector beyond hydro, which is currently the main source of energy. Alternative sources, including solar, coal and thermal, shall be tapped into, in ways that avoid or minimize environmental degradation (31).

Malawi's Energy Policy of 2018 seeks to guide planning and implementation of programmes, projects and activities in the energy sector with the aim of increasing access to affordable, reliable, sustainable, efficient and modern energy services for every person in the country. Under Policy Priority Area 6 it states that the Government will promote coal as a fuel for power generation and as an alternative for household, tobacco curing and other applications through the implementation of environmentally friendly coal-fired electricity generation projects (38).

Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) for Malawi of 2017 is a follow-on to a Mini-IRP study completed in 2015. The Plan's aim is to prepare a least-cost investment plan in generation, transmission and demand-side measures covering the 20 year period 2017 to 2037 (34).

Financial Environment

Financial incentives: The Export–Import Bank of China provides concessional loans with no or low interests. It offers a range of financing and trade finance instruments, including demand guarantees. Any overseas company benefitting from the guaranteed investment needs to be partly or fully owned by a Chinese parent company (25.1).

Fiscal incentives: The Malawi Government has, through the Taxation (Priority Industries) Regulations 2013, designated two industries as priority, one of which is the electricity generation, transmission and distribution. The companies that are accorded the Priority Industry status are given either 0% Corporate Income Tax rates for a period not exceeding 10 years or 15% income tax rate; provided that an additional 5% of taxable income is charged for companies not incorporated in Malawi (39).

Other incentives) The Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) is a member of the World Bank and aims to promote cross-border investment in developing countries by providing guarantees (political risk insurance and credit enhancement) to investors and lenders (17). Investors can apply for MIGA guarantees to the value of the investment. Companies must be incorporated in a member country or majority-owned by nationals of a member country to be eligible.

Regulatory Environment

The Malawi Energy Regulatory Authority (MERA) is the custodiam of the Malawi Feed-In Tariff Policy 2012 which regulates the details of Power Purchase Agreements to feed access electricity into the national grid (26).

The Energy Regulation Act of 2007 aims to establish the Malawi Energy Regulatory Authority (MERA) to regulate the energy sector, to define the functions and powers of the Energy Regulatory Authority, to provide for licensing of energy undertakings (22.1).

The Electricity Act of 2007 makes provisions for the regulation of the generation, transmission, wheeling distribution, sale, importation and exportation, use and safety of electricity (23.1).

The Environmental Management Act of 1996 (revised in 2004) makes provision for the protection and management of the environment and the conservation and sustainable utilization of natural resources (24.1).

Marketplace Participants

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Private Sector

Rukuru Power Company Limited, Hubei Electric Power Construction Engineering Co, Zagaf Cement, China Energy Engineering Corporation (CEEC).

Government

Electricity Generation Company (EGENCO) of Malawi, Energy Regulatory Authority (MERA), Electricity Generation Company (Malawi) Limited (EGENCO), and Electricity Supply Corporation of Malawi (ESCOM) Ltd, the state transmission and distribution company. ESCOM is the system and market operator (SMO) as well as the single buyer of electricity generated throughout the country (37).

Multilaterals

World Bank Group, Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), China Development Bank (CDB).

Public-Private Partnership

Electricity Supply Corporation of Malawi (ESCOM) purchases generated electricity through a Power Purchase Agreement (PPA) (4).

Target Locations

See what country regions are most suitable for the investment opportunity. All references to Kosovo shall be understood to be in the context of the Security Council Resolution 1244 (1999)
country static map
urban

Malawi: Southern

A single-line railway, which starts at Moatize coal mine and ends in Nacala Port in Mozambique (total length of 912 km) can provide the coal necessary for potential projects (40) .
urban

Malawi: Northern

CPL-Mchenga coal mining operations are located in the Livingstone Coalfield in Rumphi District, about 20 km north of Mzuzu the northern capital (4).

References

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